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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still